* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 06/30/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 48 52 45 38 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 48 52 45 38 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 12 13 9 8 11 12 13 14 17 26 26 32 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 2 3 -2 4 3 4 1 4 3 4 7 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 189 172 138 141 158 183 199 214 233 249 254 230 227 214 204 205 199 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.3 22.9 22.2 21.1 20.6 20.1 19.9 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 146 142 136 124 120 113 105 90 84 71 66 60 59 63 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 75 73 73 71 68 67 63 59 54 45 42 33 29 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 13 16 16 19 15 13 11 8 6 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 48 54 62 47 61 65 62 54 30 14 -4 -19 -45 -13 -3 200 MB DIV 122 113 125 157 130 82 74 102 76 54 -4 14 17 14 8 9 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 1 4 5 5 4 5 4 2 -5 -8 -16 -8 LAND (KM) 1855 1856 1838 1815 1793 1715 1578 1458 1343 1247 1163 1138 1059 914 773 696 600 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.6 16.9 18.1 19.4 20.9 22.7 24.5 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.6 125.0 125.2 125.3 125.4 125.0 124.7 124.5 124.7 125.1 125.8 126.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 7 6 6 7 9 8 10 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 21 18 17 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 18. 15. 11. 5. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 27. 20. 13. 7. 0. -6. -15. -24. -35. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 124.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.80 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 24.3% 8.5% 5.4% 1.0% 4.4% 2.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 8.6% 4.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 18.7% 11.4% 2.3% 0.3% 8.9% 7.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##