* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 06/30/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 36 41 45 46 38 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 36 41 45 46 38 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 1 4 8 11 11 12 15 19 25 26 31 34 43 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 3 4 6 1 3 6 3 3 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 218 178 184 119 127 201 227 232 211 224 228 233 214 202 201 212 210 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.3 25.9 25.1 24.5 23.4 22.9 21.5 20.8 20.2 20.1 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 150 146 138 126 121 113 107 96 90 75 68 61 60 59 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -49.7 -49.7 -50.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 76 75 72 71 66 65 59 55 49 44 39 34 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 17 17 13 12 8 7 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 42 42 48 38 48 39 55 41 36 4 0 -17 -29 -27 3 200 MB DIV 119 127 127 133 156 120 106 84 67 78 36 16 28 19 35 5 18 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 5 1 4 1 6 1 3 -3 -14 -20 -16 LAND (KM) 1857 1856 1850 1831 1807 1741 1623 1496 1382 1313 1278 1263 1160 1028 874 764 665 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 19.6 21.0 22.7 24.2 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 123.9 124.4 124.8 125.1 125.3 125.4 125.2 125.2 125.6 126.4 127.0 127.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 29 23 18 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 20. 16. 11. 6. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 4. 2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 25. 26. 18. 12. 5. -0. -9. -19. -31. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 123.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.82 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.81 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 37.5% 16.8% 10.8% 2.3% 9.2% 5.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.9% 5.5% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 14.3% 7.1% 3.9% 0.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 9.1% 4.0% 1.9% 0.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##