* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 16 17 30 31 29 31 24 24 25 27 27 29 41 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 2 6 -4 0 4 -1 4 5 5 3 3 6 2 -8 SHEAR DIR 247 244 280 296 301 298 278 260 243 246 222 218 209 231 251 275 286 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.6 25.1 23.5 23.7 22.9 22.9 23.5 23.3 23.4 24.1 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 114 113 112 109 114 98 99 91 90 96 94 96 103 114 109 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 55 50 48 47 46 41 35 31 26 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -22 -13 -4 -2 -15 -45 -43 -31 -32 -28 -29 -11 0 10 9 200 MB DIV 51 29 24 -9 -24 -39 -11 -10 -3 -9 -8 0 -1 10 3 -11 -15 700-850 TADV -1 3 3 4 7 0 3 -6 2 -4 4 0 4 -1 -3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1000 1076 1134 1184 1230 1323 1448 1601 1672 1765 1859 1891 1724 1543 1346 1140 939 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.4 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.3 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.8 127.8 129.8 131.9 133.9 135.7 137.2 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. -41. -46. -54. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 118.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 10.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##