* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 26 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 26 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 14 17 25 31 31 25 26 25 26 25 26 20 35 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 -1 1 2 0 7 6 6 4 5 0 -13 SHEAR DIR 247 239 240 273 293 295 290 268 253 245 228 213 214 210 237 269 276 SST (C) 26.6 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.0 24.9 23.5 23.7 22.8 23.1 22.8 22.8 23.3 23.3 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 122 119 113 110 103 112 98 100 90 94 90 90 95 95 103 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 53 49 48 45 44 40 36 32 31 30 28 25 24 22 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -9 -17 -8 6 -10 -25 -40 -32 -25 -29 -22 -18 -4 -8 -2 200 MB DIV 51 50 35 35 5 -41 -11 -8 12 9 18 5 18 12 15 -6 -19 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 3 4 7 2 1 6 1 4 6 4 7 -1 2 -6 LAND (KM) 924 983 1056 1113 1167 1273 1409 1582 1685 1777 1885 1789 1626 1467 1296 1121 934 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 119.0 120.4 121.7 123.0 125.2 127.3 129.6 132.1 134.4 136.6 138.6 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -6. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -6. -9. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -35. -41. -49. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 117.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.52 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##