* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 30 30 26 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 30 30 26 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 14 14 17 29 26 27 29 27 26 23 25 30 36 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 4 -3 3 1 -1 6 5 5 3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 234 224 228 257 291 288 271 250 236 238 219 227 225 243 256 276 SST (C) 27.1 26.4 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.7 24.5 23.7 22.8 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.8 23.4 23.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 121 118 112 108 110 108 100 90 88 88 89 89 95 97 103 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 53 51 48 47 43 38 36 33 31 29 25 25 22 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -1 -6 -12 12 1 -5 -31 -28 -21 -22 -19 -16 0 -8 -3 200 MB DIV 42 53 53 36 23 2 -43 -1 -10 19 -13 12 0 9 6 2 -30 700-850 TADV -4 3 5 4 2 7 4 5 0 4 0 5 0 3 -4 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 843 921 975 1051 1103 1207 1342 1508 1644 1722 1814 1904 1764 1626 1485 1336 1157 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.8 24.5 25.2 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 117.6 119.1 120.5 121.8 124.2 126.4 128.7 131.0 133.4 135.4 137.3 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -7. -9. -14. -21. -26. -31. -34. -39. -44. -52. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 116.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.66 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.7% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##