* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 25 23 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 25 23 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 15 15 15 20 30 38 36 29 35 23 31 25 29 35 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 2 4 3 -4 9 2 6 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 261 239 238 240 241 277 286 284 272 257 257 244 230 234 239 260 265 SST (C) 27.7 26.6 25.1 24.9 25.1 24.5 23.5 24.6 23.3 22.6 22.7 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.8 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 132 116 114 116 109 98 109 96 89 89 93 92 94 100 104 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 56 53 49 44 44 42 40 38 34 32 31 27 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -12 -12 -8 -11 7 2 -6 -29 -35 -25 -25 -22 -13 -18 -3 -7 200 MB DIV 29 36 41 37 22 14 -30 -16 -29 5 -2 20 0 2 -2 4 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -2 10 11 6 7 9 11 9 13 5 6 5 4 4 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 731 790 845 900 976 1085 1210 1382 1524 1637 1761 1895 1747 1558 1390 1195 995 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.9 117.5 119.0 120.4 123.0 125.3 127.6 129.9 132.4 134.7 136.9 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 12 11 12 11 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -28. -32. -37. -46. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 114.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 10.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##