* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 31 30 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 31 30 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 14 14 18 23 34 34 33 33 35 29 31 32 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 0 0 1 5 0 6 3 -1 -1 6 2 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 307 246 240 240 236 254 285 290 278 259 243 255 237 241 249 259 267 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 26.5 25.2 25.0 24.3 23.9 24.5 23.4 22.6 22.5 22.1 21.9 22.6 22.6 23.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 131 117 115 107 102 108 97 88 87 82 79 86 86 93 98 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 60 57 51 48 44 44 40 38 34 33 31 28 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -14 -14 -8 -7 -10 9 -14 -20 -45 -26 -29 -30 -27 -18 -10 -15 200 MB DIV 36 33 40 48 32 31 -13 -48 -6 -12 14 6 3 0 -2 -16 0 700-850 TADV -6 -5 0 9 9 6 11 6 10 11 8 3 2 -1 1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 724 751 806 860 915 1038 1160 1316 1490 1556 1642 1733 1834 1836 1705 1567 1411 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 114.6 116.1 117.6 119.1 121.9 124.4 126.7 129.0 131.3 133.4 135.2 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. -5. -10. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -27. -34. -45. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 112.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.68 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 17.5% 12.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.8% 4.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##