* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 36 37 38 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 36 37 38 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 5 7 7 17 30 40 36 31 36 32 40 35 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 4 2 2 4 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 2 -5 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 319 307 263 245 255 232 277 292 286 262 248 243 243 236 241 242 255 SST (C) 29.3 28.1 27.7 26.8 25.2 25.0 24.3 23.2 23.6 23.0 22.2 21.8 21.2 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 147 143 134 118 115 107 95 99 92 83 78 71 69 72 78 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 60 54 50 45 45 45 44 42 39 31 28 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 -9 -17 -15 -19 2 -9 -18 -38 -43 -31 -24 -24 -24 -19 -5 200 MB DIV 12 36 35 42 55 11 12 -26 -29 -12 7 3 23 -4 -11 -1 0 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -3 0 1 7 13 12 13 8 4 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 719 704 707 759 818 948 1063 1189 1349 1424 1469 1514 1568 1608 1660 1735 1831 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.4 113.9 115.5 117.1 120.1 123.0 125.4 127.6 129.6 131.4 132.8 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 15 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 2 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. 1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 1. -7. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 6. -1. -7. -12. -19. -29. -39. -52. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 111.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.3% 14.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.5% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.0% 5.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 5.5% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##