* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 32 32 28 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 32 32 28 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 6 7 11 17 22 35 36 32 29 30 28 26 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 6 6 0 2 4 0 2 -2 -3 0 4 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 328 319 313 304 275 242 250 275 285 274 258 237 247 240 261 248 280 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 24.5 24.5 22.9 23.0 22.2 21.7 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.7 22.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 143 138 131 110 109 92 92 84 78 78 75 72 76 84 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 65 64 59 53 46 44 44 46 44 41 36 31 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 2 -9 -22 -30 -13 -6 -30 -39 -72 -56 -43 -48 -39 -19 -5 200 MB DIV 3 16 32 38 37 24 15 8 -47 -8 -3 -5 -12 -10 -19 -18 -25 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -9 -1 8 5 15 14 16 11 4 1 0 -4 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 615 665 662 652 698 801 924 1024 1159 1266 1309 1383 1476 1574 1680 1794 1907 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.0 25.0 25.7 26.1 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.6 112.1 113.6 115.2 118.3 121.2 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.6 131.2 132.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 17 16 14 12 10 10 9 6 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 8. 4. -2. -7. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -0. -4. -9. -17. -24. -33. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 109.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.23 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.7% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##