* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 42 42 39 35 33 30 26 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 42 42 39 35 33 30 26 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 6 1 7 10 16 20 21 25 22 24 27 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 0 5 -4 0 0 2 7 1 4 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 16 1 331 327 338 197 237 242 251 264 271 265 242 237 222 229 209 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.5 29.4 28.2 27.6 26.3 25.1 24.7 25.0 24.4 23.0 22.4 22.3 22.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 167 161 160 148 141 128 115 111 113 107 92 84 83 82 77 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 77 75 73 71 64 57 50 46 45 44 43 42 39 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 25 20 14 6 -7 -17 -7 -2 -14 -30 -44 -39 -43 -43 -30 200 MB DIV 56 51 34 17 40 29 53 39 10 -36 -6 -3 14 7 13 0 10 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 -1 1 3 12 7 14 8 12 6 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 818 852 873 901 944 917 967 1059 1166 1260 1365 1489 1544 1556 1583 1633 1688 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.7 16.0 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.5 22.5 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.4 114.8 117.2 119.7 122.1 124.3 126.6 128.6 130.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 49 31 23 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 15. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 23. 19. 16. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. -0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 17. 14. 10. 8. 5. 1. -4. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 108.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.38 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.13 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.7% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 21.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.7% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.8% 7.8% 0.7% 0.2% 8.7% 8.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 6.9% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4.3% 4.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##