* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 32 37 39 38 35 33 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 32 37 39 38 35 33 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 8 9 1 9 8 17 16 19 20 15 16 16 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -3 4 0 3 0 1 3 1 0 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 15 7 3 331 319 51 257 246 259 259 266 261 268 238 245 248 256 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.6 28.6 26.9 24.9 24.7 23.5 22.9 23.1 22.5 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 165 162 152 135 113 111 98 91 92 85 78 75 81 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 74 73 69 66 60 56 49 44 41 40 38 36 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 17 14 11 2 -13 -24 -7 -14 -21 -42 -64 -53 -52 -56 -31 200 MB DIV 33 48 42 15 10 28 57 38 38 0 -14 -13 -11 -8 -5 -28 -24 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 8 4 11 8 9 7 5 0 -2 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 685 697 710 709 749 758 790 868 941 1005 1092 1179 1235 1227 1239 1244 1274 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.7 18.3 19.7 21.1 22.4 23.5 24.4 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.5 113.0 115.8 118.5 120.9 123.0 124.8 126.2 127.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 13 13 10 9 7 5 2 0 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 29 32 29 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 6. 15. 22. 26. 27. 25. 23. 19. 15. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 19. 18. 15. 13. 10. 4. -2. -9. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 106.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.96 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 10.2% 4.5% 2.1% 1.0% 4.9% 1.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##