* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 06/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 8 8 2 8 10 14 17 21 21 23 18 17 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 2 0 1 4 1 4 0 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 19 12 359 342 308 276 250 247 247 256 261 260 254 239 226 227 230 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 28.5 27.3 24.9 24.8 23.8 22.9 23.3 22.7 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 164 151 139 114 112 101 91 95 88 78 76 74 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 73 74 70 67 62 57 51 45 41 37 35 32 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 13 15 15 6 -10 -21 -20 7 -16 -15 -60 -56 -50 -55 -35 200 MB DIV 24 44 55 46 18 46 40 36 9 15 -35 5 -9 -1 0 11 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -4 -2 0 1 9 8 11 5 6 7 4 0 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 658 666 677 669 683 746 753 846 954 1025 1102 1196 1279 1293 1307 1314 1336 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.5 18.0 19.5 20.7 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.4 107.4 108.4 109.5 112.1 115.0 118.0 120.6 122.9 124.6 126.2 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 31 25 29 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 5. 15. 24. 29. 30. 30. 28. 25. 21. 18. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 17. 20. 19. 16. 14. 12. 7. 2. -5. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 12.8 105.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 06/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.4 30.0 to 148.5 1.00 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.01 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 06/22/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##