* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 6 3 6 17 27 32 33 40 48 52 55 54 46 47 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 8 7 7 2 0 6 4 0 -3 -6 -4 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 344 342 354 336 272 289 301 283 278 250 256 250 250 254 265 252 252 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 144 145 144 139 138 143 144 147 140 140 145 144 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 49 47 46 40 37 35 36 38 38 39 41 43 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -2 -8 -10 -10 -25 -43 -53 -53 -46 -44 -35 -32 -14 4 23 200 MB DIV -1 22 20 -6 -20 -2 16 7 -7 -32 -43 -19 -4 9 -4 11 15 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 6 0 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -12 -6 LAND (KM) 2284 2166 2035 1918 1797 1542 1272 1008 805 647 570 636 808 1013 1162 1358 1583 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.4 137.6 138.7 139.8 142.2 144.9 147.6 150.1 152.6 155.3 158.1 160.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 20 20 10 18 11 8 17 14 29 19 23 28 32 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 45. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -5. -11. -17. -25. -32. -38. -41. -43. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 135.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.56 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##