* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 27 29 29 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 27 29 29 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 7 6 8 18 23 24 33 46 49 52 51 50 52 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 5 9 6 3 6 7 -1 0 -3 -1 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 340 351 354 20 44 276 303 294 278 254 253 256 256 254 252 252 249 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 146 146 146 142 139 140 144 144 144 139 140 143 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 46 48 48 46 40 37 36 36 38 40 39 40 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 3 -3 -9 -12 -14 -31 -43 -52 -50 -44 -37 -36 -22 -12 3 200 MB DIV -22 7 20 18 2 -16 1 -14 2 -15 -35 -19 -22 2 -8 14 2 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 3 4 4 7 6 6 2 3 2 2 -1 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 2422 2319 2206 2090 1968 1717 1462 1183 945 746 613 587 680 850 995 1143 1353 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.2 136.2 137.3 138.4 140.7 143.2 146.0 148.6 151.2 153.8 156.5 159.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 24 21 21 19 20 11 10 19 13 22 19 22 27 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -23. -29. -33. -35. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 134.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.80 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 3.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##