* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 29 32 33 32 31 28 24 20 17 16 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 29 32 33 32 31 28 24 20 17 16 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 9 8 5 11 18 21 21 34 45 51 56 49 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 0 2 9 9 4 4 9 4 0 0 -5 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 349 346 354 11 30 349 304 307 296 274 248 258 257 258 260 256 253 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 146 145 141 139 142 146 149 149 146 148 144 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 50 52 54 53 48 43 41 42 42 42 43 44 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 17 4 -5 -2 -10 -9 -15 -27 -35 -39 -31 -30 -15 -9 0 8 200 MB DIV -11 -23 -4 5 12 -15 3 -11 -9 -11 -16 -16 4 9 21 -3 12 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 5 7 1 1 1 2 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 2550 2467 2369 2261 2145 1903 1660 1408 1154 948 780 696 728 874 1060 1205 1389 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.0 134.9 135.9 137.0 139.2 141.5 144.1 146.8 149.4 152.1 154.9 157.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 22 26 21 20 22 16 18 24 27 32 32 34 34 31 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 28. 34. 38. 42. 45. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -18. -25. -29. -32. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 133.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.84 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##