* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 32 36 39 40 40 38 36 33 31 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 32 36 39 40 40 38 36 33 31 30 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 24 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 10 8 5 7 16 18 20 28 38 42 45 47 49 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 0 1 6 6 5 8 7 4 2 2 0 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 54 347 335 349 359 16 271 289 297 280 257 246 256 258 265 264 257 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 151 149 147 146 143 139 141 145 146 142 139 141 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 49 51 53 54 50 46 41 40 41 43 44 45 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 18 5 -1 -2 -2 0 -15 -28 -39 -36 -35 -20 -18 -11 -10 200 MB DIV 14 -9 -25 0 6 8 37 41 -7 -16 -7 -30 -1 -15 3 5 11 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 2 4 4 1 4 12 8 1 5 6 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 2619 2555 2461 2373 2261 2017 1771 1499 1213 946 748 609 595 726 915 1048 1229 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.2 134.0 134.8 135.8 138.0 140.3 143.0 145.9 148.8 151.5 154.3 157.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 11 12 14 15 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 24 23 25 23 21 19 16 13 20 20 19 20 22 25 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 34. 38. 42. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -17. -20. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 132.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -12.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##