* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 37 41 42 44 44 44 41 40 39 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 31 37 41 42 44 44 44 41 40 39 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 10 10 5 5 14 18 19 22 27 40 42 44 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 1 0 4 6 4 5 8 8 6 0 3 -1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 47 51 355 344 355 12 280 271 294 283 279 254 257 259 256 252 258 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 152 150 148 147 143 142 144 147 149 150 148 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 52 54 57 55 53 49 45 45 46 47 49 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 26 15 1 -5 -13 -4 -1 -8 -19 -19 -24 -14 -7 -3 2 200 MB DIV 31 11 -14 -10 5 25 34 50 32 22 -23 -23 -18 -10 21 34 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 1 6 9 0 0 1 5 -2 4 LAND (KM) 2698 2654 2599 2520 2432 2227 1980 1733 1469 1200 972 790 725 794 957 1124 1277 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.4 132.8 133.5 134.3 136.2 138.5 140.9 143.7 146.7 149.6 152.5 155.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 25 23 23 23 21 18 22 27 31 33 37 35 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. 51. 52. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 132.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.82 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 8.4% 3.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 7.0% 4.6% 0.6% 0.1% 4.8% 4.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##