* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 28 34 40 43 44 47 47 47 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 28 34 40 43 44 47 47 47 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 6 9 6 6 7 15 15 15 21 26 34 38 40 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 4 1 2 5 6 1 4 8 6 5 2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 56 32 30 359 343 355 360 302 308 303 299 284 264 264 266 265 266 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 151 152 151 151 148 145 146 146 146 148 150 151 150 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 59 57 57 59 61 58 54 52 47 49 46 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 23 21 12 -5 -10 -11 -5 -4 -2 -9 -8 -17 -9 -8 -8 200 MB DIV 60 42 9 -8 -8 7 29 23 29 40 1 -23 -17 -11 0 12 3 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 0 0 2 4 -1 -1 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 2740 2719 2689 2655 2577 2401 2188 1947 1709 1446 1203 1004 849 780 849 997 1168 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.1 132.3 132.6 133.3 134.9 136.9 139.1 141.5 144.3 147.2 150.0 152.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 15 15 23 19 24 20 21 21 26 29 34 35 39 41 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 34. 39. 44. 47. 50. 52. 53. 54. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 15. 18. 19. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 132.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.71 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4.3% 3.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##