* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 35 42 46 47 48 50 50 50 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 35 42 46 47 48 50 50 50 50 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 6 6 12 9 9 12 19 16 17 18 25 29 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 0 2 5 2 -1 4 3 3 4 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 57 47 44 46 360 349 354 346 321 318 299 302 260 258 260 259 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 146 148 151 152 148 148 146 144 145 143 146 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 59 59 57 58 61 62 59 57 53 51 46 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 38 30 26 25 -2 -5 -17 -17 -23 -10 -11 -9 -6 -4 3 -1 200 MB DIV 94 60 55 38 19 9 20 31 29 11 11 2 -7 -28 -6 0 8 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 -1 -2 3 2 -2 -3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 2775 2762 2738 2731 2728 2591 2405 2186 1966 1736 1495 1263 1067 918 823 843 950 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 131.6 131.5 131.6 131.9 133.1 134.8 136.8 138.9 141.2 143.8 146.5 149.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 5 7 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 15 15 22 23 23 21 23 23 27 26 31 36 39 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 18. 26. 33. 38. 43. 47. 49. 51. 51. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.3 131.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.05 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.7% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 5.3% 5.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 3.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##