* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 38 44 49 50 51 50 50 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 38 44 49 50 51 50 50 48 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 20 16 13 3 15 13 9 7 16 19 18 20 26 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 5 1 5 5 2 5 7 4 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 55 51 55 51 40 355 330 7 4 305 312 313 277 249 250 264 265 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 147 147 150 150 150 139 141 143 135 135 137 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 62 61 58 59 61 57 57 56 58 55 57 49 48 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 51 54 54 50 42 30 -2 -21 -33 -32 -31 -16 -24 -19 -10 -6 200 MB DIV 81 74 103 102 101 119 26 6 27 56 12 -17 -6 6 -16 -20 -13 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 5 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 2691 2744 2786 2754 2722 2675 2670 2554 2348 2103 1858 1610 1384 1177 977 798 656 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.8 132.3 131.8 131.3 131.1 131.0 131.7 132.9 134.6 136.7 138.9 141.1 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 2 3 6 8 10 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 17 15 15 16 16 22 27 18 8 10 6 7 8 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 44. 46. 46. 46. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 19. 24. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 132.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.2% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##