* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 06/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 47 51 54 55 55 55 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 47 51 54 55 55 55 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 22 19 14 5 10 18 12 9 9 17 18 16 16 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 8 6 2 7 1 3 7 6 1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 50 47 48 46 358 340 8 16 3 301 328 322 307 259 255 251 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.1 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 152 152 153 153 148 149 149 143 135 141 139 135 132 135 139 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 62 60 56 60 57 56 54 58 55 54 49 46 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 64 69 69 47 38 11 -10 -39 -32 -32 -24 -23 -18 -20 -15 200 MB DIV 90 79 81 98 106 104 60 0 17 36 44 -19 -11 0 -6 -21 -14 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 6 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2666 2748 2777 2714 2659 2596 2566 2555 2493 2268 2022 1781 1537 1319 1120 949 791 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.5 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 132.2 131.6 131.0 130.5 130.2 130.6 131.5 133.0 134.9 137.1 139.3 141.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 4 4 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 17 16 17 18 15 19 29 22 13 9 8 6 6 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 46. 47. 46. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.2 133.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 06/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.90 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.23 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 5.0% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 06/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##