* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/08/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 36 35 34 33 37 45 46 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 36 35 34 33 37 38 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 36 35 33 29 26 26 24 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 31 31 32 34 36 26 18 12 7 6 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 7 4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 19 17 11 16 28 19 2 356 128 158 191 337 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 161 161 160 159 160 163 168 170 169 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 77 79 82 79 81 82 84 80 80 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 16 13 12 12 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 71 68 76 80 57 73 72 84 86 94 95 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 115 92 103 113 78 81 84 113 149 96 100 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 6 1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 155 146 137 152 158 149 131 106 72 -11 -29 -78 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 4 6 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 18 16 18 23 17 18 25 6 7 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -29. -28. -27. -25. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. 3. -1. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 7. 15. 16. 17. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 87.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/08/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 3.0% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/08/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##