* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/08/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 26 25 24 28 32 42 42 41 43 45 48 48 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 26 25 24 28 32 32 29 27 32 34 37 37 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 24 21 20 20 20 24 26 30 32 33 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 28 27 33 22 16 11 5 12 14 11 12 9 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 5 11 0 2 0 1 4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 14 16 14 9 358 20 34 14 346 294 185 262 316 360 11 29 20 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 161 161 161 159 163 166 165 165 166 160 156 155 156 155 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 6 4 7 5 10 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 78 80 83 86 83 86 84 85 83 84 81 79 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 16 15 15 15 13 14 12 16 13 10 9 9 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 69 73 66 63 65 52 56 50 71 71 84 74 92 67 67 37 75 200 MB DIV 106 94 113 130 116 85 83 69 120 127 151 87 74 40 24 0 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 0 -1 -4 -1 1 8 -2 0 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 182 150 130 109 109 88 63 95 88 -35 -149 -96 84 230 258 230 138 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.3 13.8 15.7 17.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.2 87.0 86.8 86.8 86.6 86.6 87.3 88.2 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 5 8 10 10 11 9 6 5 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 21 25 24 24 21 18 24 28 7 6 6 11 14 23 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -18. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. -0. 5. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. 3. 7. 17. 17. 16. 18. 20. 23. 23. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 87.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/08/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.5% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.8% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/08/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##