* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/07/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 23 23 25 32 38 46 45 44 40 40 44 50 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 23 23 25 32 38 35 30 28 27 28 31 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 31 30 29 31 22 10 8 5 4 11 10 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 2 1 2 6 0 -2 5 1 2 -2 1 -2 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 35 23 24 24 14 7 24 19 348 3 134 353 18 37 75 46 77 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 159 161 161 161 163 162 165 166 164 159 156 157 155 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 78 76 82 82 85 83 89 83 83 81 79 77 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 19 18 17 17 17 19 15 10 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 77 81 78 77 82 54 66 73 89 95 105 104 97 93 86 93 200 MB DIV 91 74 93 123 129 131 99 75 117 115 163 131 108 39 52 36 79 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 1 0 0 -2 5 5 3 0 6 14 LAND (KM) 241 226 216 192 184 169 137 144 158 79 -63 -196 -82 40 117 154 1 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.8 14.5 16.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.2 88.0 87.8 87.7 87.5 87.4 87.7 88.6 89.6 90.7 91.5 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 4 7 8 10 10 8 5 4 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 9 11 11 14 18 17 26 16 8 7 6 6 9 12 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 41. 45. 47. 48. 50. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -25. -26. -25. -23. -21. -17. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 3. -3. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 12. 18. 26. 25. 24. 20. 20. 24. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 88.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##