* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 22 26 26 28 30 38 39 43 46 46 44 46 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 22 26 26 28 30 38 39 30 28 27 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 19 18 17 16 16 21 25 26 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 26 30 31 35 28 17 9 14 6 9 4 10 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 5 3 5 1 3 4 6 5 -1 5 0 0 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 22 21 25 24 18 26 30 13 17 44 102 14 11 32 266 186 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 158 159 159 159 161 161 163 165 165 164 162 160 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 4 6 5 8 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 80 77 80 80 83 82 83 82 81 77 72 69 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 17 16 16 14 16 14 13 11 8 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 86 95 87 80 74 60 72 94 94 116 108 119 114 118 95 200 MB DIV 51 63 65 85 93 139 87 81 88 107 112 99 96 69 24 38 52 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -3 0 2 5 7 2 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 188 170 170 170 170 179 163 170 160 115 20 -134 -183 -28 21 -50 -56 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.7 15.2 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.4 88.4 88.4 88.4 88.4 88.3 88.4 88.9 89.8 90.6 91.1 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 6 8 8 8 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 23 23 23 21 21 23 23 18 10 7 6 5 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 48. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -21. -26. -27. -28. -27. -24. -20. -16. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 9. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 8. 10. 18. 19. 23. 26. 26. 24. 26. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 88.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.12 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##