* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/07/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 21 22 22 28 28 30 29 35 35 37 36 40 44 50 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 21 22 22 28 28 30 29 35 29 28 27 32 36 42 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 15 17 23 26 32 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 23 28 30 34 34 25 21 15 5 8 4 7 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 4 2 2 3 4 2 -2 1 5 6 7 -5 2 -1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 18 38 33 34 28 18 26 29 14 7 34 53 33 84 28 46 82 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.5 30.8 30.6 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 158 159 162 163 162 163 163 169 171 171 162 158 160 156 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 4 6 6 7 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 80 79 77 79 77 80 78 85 81 77 72 71 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 15 14 14 15 20 19 18 16 18 15 12 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 78 82 93 97 86 85 73 77 78 106 113 118 107 93 90 102 200 MB DIV 69 65 84 88 104 152 128 105 82 98 64 89 89 65 28 25 20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 2 5 3 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 8 LAND (KM) 248 235 229 234 229 190 147 119 135 121 52 -40 -115 -43 83 161 156 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.8 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.6 89.7 89.8 89.7 89.5 89.2 89.0 89.4 90.3 91.2 92.0 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 3 6 7 8 9 8 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 13 17 20 19 17 7 6 8 5 14 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 43. 46. 48. 50. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -19. -26. -30. -31. -29. -26. -22. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 3. 4. 10. 10. 11. 7. 9. 6. 1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 1. 2. 2. 8. 8. 10. 9. 15. 15. 17. 16. 20. 24. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 89.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.02 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##