* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 31 35 38 41 42 47 50 55 55 52 50 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 27 31 35 38 41 42 47 36 30 28 28 27 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 22 20 20 21 22 25 26 30 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 20 21 22 27 33 33 18 18 13 13 1 11 7 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 5 4 2 7 7 -5 5 3 1 5 -1 -5 -3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 32 33 51 46 45 17 17 23 21 3 21 19 1 8 65 76 341 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 161 161 161 161 159 163 166 167 171 171 166 158 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 83 85 82 80 80 77 79 78 81 77 83 82 79 73 71 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 13 15 14 17 20 20 19 18 18 19 19 17 11 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 60 79 87 91 93 82 79 73 85 99 107 112 100 105 83 60 200 MB DIV 77 77 75 111 109 134 147 67 87 81 90 97 105 79 23 26 -8 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 0 0 3 5 4 0 2 0 2 1 2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 291 276 270 266 270 250 193 115 103 77 16 -82 -137 -104 34 73 161 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.7 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.6 89.7 89.6 89.4 89.0 88.6 88.1 88.3 89.0 90.0 91.1 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 0 2 2 2 3 2 3 6 7 9 8 9 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 7 10 17 20 28 14 3 8 8 8 0 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 13. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. 45. 48. 50. 52. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -18. -23. -26. -26. -26. -23. -19. -16. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 27. 30. 35. 35. 32. 30. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 89.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.08 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.05 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##