* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 41 47 55 56 59 62 64 68 69 64 60 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 41 47 55 44 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 16 17 20 22 26 25 23 9 9 6 11 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 5 9 2 -1 0 9 4 -1 -2 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 21 26 29 21 40 12 11 349 23 17 351 341 304 333 24 57 73 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.0 29.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.6 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 161 162 163 162 158 152 159 170 169 170 166 161 163 161 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 84 86 83 83 80 76 80 81 84 81 82 78 74 68 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 11 13 15 16 17 21 19 20 20 20 22 22 17 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 43 48 57 62 62 71 63 100 95 102 99 101 90 73 38 200 MB DIV 76 86 73 68 97 112 157 96 108 117 132 74 72 82 40 35 10 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 5 2 -1 0 -1 0 0 -7 0 LAND (KM) 342 331 323 302 267 180 84 48 -29 -46 -54 -130 -212 -104 -27 -122 -250 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.8 11.6 12.5 13.8 15.1 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 88.8 88.7 88.5 88.2 87.4 86.6 86.1 85.9 86.5 88.2 89.8 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 4 5 4 4 8 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 10 12 21 20 15 11 11 13 7 7 8 3 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 24. 30. 36. 41. 45. 49. 52. 54. 56. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -18. -22. -22. -21. -19. -15. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 17. 17. 18. 18. 16. 16. 15. 9. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 27. 35. 36. 39. 42. 44. 48. 49. 44. 40. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 88.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.17 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 34.8% 8.8% 5.2% 0.5% 8.5% 9.6% 21.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 12.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.2% 2.9% 3.2% 7.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.6% 13.5% 5.0% 1.4% 0.6% 1.9% 2.6% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##