* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 06/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 34 41 49 50 53 55 56 58 62 59 53 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 34 41 49 44 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 17 18 19 25 26 28 25 17 14 13 8 21 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 7 6 7 4 5 4 2 5 -1 5 0 4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 12 12 16 21 25 38 4 353 14 34 18 350 341 354 7 30 19 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.1 29.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 166 166 165 164 161 154 158 169 169 170 166 161 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 6 5 7 6 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 85 82 80 76 78 81 83 81 82 80 75 71 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 11 14 15 17 20 19 19 20 18 18 20 15 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 24 29 35 61 59 77 65 84 94 95 92 100 67 63 32 200 MB DIV 89 85 89 99 86 124 133 109 94 99 103 76 35 102 73 21 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 4 4 5 -1 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 398 398 403 395 371 284 156 58 -4 -71 -43 -93 -219 -103 -20 -50 -129 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.5 11.3 12.5 13.8 15.2 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.4 89.4 89.3 89.1 88.3 87.2 86.3 85.9 86.2 87.5 89.4 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 1 3 4 6 5 5 7 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 10 11 11 15 20 24 11 11 13 7 7 7 4 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 5. 15. 24. 31. 37. 41. 46. 50. 53. 55. 57. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -20. -24. -27. -26. -24. -20. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 16. 17. 18. 18. 15. 13. 14. 8. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 29. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 42. 39. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 89.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 06/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.97 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.20 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2.2% 6.0% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 06/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##