* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 25 22 20 23 25 26 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 25 22 20 23 25 26 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 19 19 18 16 13 15 23 25 26 32 42 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 5 2 0 6 10 10 11 9 7 9 14 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 130 137 132 118 96 96 71 85 86 110 103 96 77 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 27.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 140 130 129 133 134 137 138 143 147 158 159 163 167 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 64 63 61 59 56 53 51 50 50 57 59 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 99 99 89 78 56 53 27 20 21 12 18 100 112 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 16 10 14 19 38 65 47 62 -6 -2 1 30 80 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -9 -6 -2 0 2 3 2 -2 0 -1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2364 2246 2137 2043 1990 1886 1837 1810 1763 1730 1697 1646 1479 1177 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.5 13.7 12.8 12.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.7 131.5 130.3 129.2 128.4 127.1 126.3 125.9 125.3 124.5 123.2 121.4 118.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 4 5 9 12 19 24 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 6 2 1 3 5 9 10 14 13 18 19 22 20 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 27. 31. 35. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 132.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.03 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 5.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##