* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/29/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 25 23 24 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 37 38 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 25 23 24 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 25 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 16 16 14 15 7 13 16 21 20 23 26 37 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 12 10 7 0 7 12 9 10 7 9 10 10 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 114 134 136 133 132 125 109 87 71 89 94 87 105 100 85 76 74 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.6 27.1 27.1 27.2 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 145 136 129 128 133 133 134 143 149 152 159 159 162 159 154 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.1 -50.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 69 67 62 60 55 55 50 46 43 43 49 52 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 101 94 90 91 82 75 64 45 33 42 45 126 155 149 150 119 200 MB DIV 22 34 38 34 35 32 22 30 83 41 17 5 7 8 3 -16 12 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 0 1 1 3 2 0 -1 -2 4 -1 7 1 LAND (KM) 2292 2370 2278 2207 2137 2020 1897 1793 1715 1622 1514 1409 1290 1138 977 860 767 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.9 133.0 132.1 131.2 130.3 129.1 127.8 126.5 125.4 124.1 122.5 120.9 119.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 14 7 2 1 4 4 6 11 15 15 27 26 32 32 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 133.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/29/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -3.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/29/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##