* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/28/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 23 24 26 27 27 30 33 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 23 24 26 27 27 30 33 35 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 27 25 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 17 16 12 14 13 13 12 16 17 19 20 12 25 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 17 16 15 0 3 5 8 9 9 5 6 11 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 95 108 131 138 139 130 108 117 100 120 97 93 83 92 95 100 85 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.6 27.2 27.2 26.7 27.4 28.0 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 151 144 136 129 134 134 129 136 143 147 153 159 157 157 152 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 73 70 65 60 60 56 55 51 45 43 48 50 52 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 101 103 97 96 88 70 72 51 42 45 51 47 150 159 156 141 200 MB DIV 41 36 65 54 38 51 33 45 87 54 43 49 21 20 33 -1 46 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -6 -7 -4 -2 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2211 2301 2342 2259 2176 2029 1889 1798 1695 1601 1513 1424 1334 1228 1098 911 673 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.9 133.9 132.8 131.9 131.0 129.4 128.0 126.9 125.6 124.2 122.9 121.6 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 13 8 1 5 5 2 8 15 12 15 24 25 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 134.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -1.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##