* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 27 24 21 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 27 24 21 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 16 19 19 16 16 19 22 28 26 22 24 28 23 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 10 12 11 12 7 15 13 17 12 14 5 0 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 196 179 167 172 178 189 212 207 228 227 247 245 232 236 255 245 249 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 146 145 144 138 135 132 124 117 107 100 97 97 98 94 94 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 64 62 57 49 43 36 29 24 21 19 16 14 13 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 122 130 127 113 96 105 93 78 38 25 30 21 13 5 1 14 200 MB DIV 77 68 60 67 61 43 10 -1 34 25 -11 -4 2 -26 -10 -5 -12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 2 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 LAND (KM) 2032 2075 2149 2230 2207 2040 1937 1863 1814 1719 1647 1606 1596 1626 1678 1747 1846 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.4 135.7 134.8 133.9 133.1 131.7 131.1 131.1 131.3 131.8 132.3 132.9 133.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 6 5 6 7 8 6 4 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 17 17 18 14 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -23. -29. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 136.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.08 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 16.1% 11.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.2% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 4.6% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##