* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 30 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 17 20 17 16 5 11 12 14 14 18 23 25 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 10 9 11 5 10 9 13 13 10 9 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 125 143 139 141 152 150 167 183 169 214 216 219 209 211 231 244 237 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.0 27.0 26.7 25.7 23.8 23.8 23.5 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 155 150 142 132 132 129 119 99 99 94 89 90 94 97 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 72 74 72 71 69 63 57 49 41 32 26 21 18 16 15 14 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 18 18 16 14 13 12 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 122 114 113 114 114 108 96 86 88 61 58 44 29 -10 -21 -25 -2 200 MB DIV 108 105 88 92 70 31 26 14 3 36 24 10 -8 -8 -6 -1 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -7 -8 -2 -1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 2085 2121 2193 2291 2245 2009 1838 1743 1681 1643 1594 1499 1427 1412 1432 1483 1549 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.3 22.8 24.1 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.6 135.9 134.9 133.7 132.5 130.5 129.2 128.9 129.1 129.6 130.0 130.4 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 14 12 10 6 6 7 8 7 6 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 21 22 22 15 5 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 11. 7. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 136.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 18.2% 13.7% 11.3% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.9% 5.5% 4.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##