* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 09/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 41 43 42 39 36 30 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 41 43 42 39 36 30 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 36 34 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 12 17 14 17 13 15 15 23 25 31 47 54 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 7 10 12 13 7 12 9 20 20 21 12 7 6 4 SHEAR DIR 118 139 142 134 144 172 154 161 156 188 202 219 218 223 219 229 235 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.3 24.6 23.6 22.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 154 154 153 143 135 132 126 109 99 87 77 78 77 76 79 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 72 69 68 64 57 50 41 32 29 25 22 21 19 16 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 18 18 16 14 12 9 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 134 129 122 118 117 115 99 80 75 57 50 38 22 -5 9 22 28 200 MB DIV 143 139 116 98 91 46 19 0 -2 15 26 10 30 1 4 0 -26 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -8 -6 -4 -5 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 10 20 17 7 0 LAND (KM) 2078 2116 2170 2251 2301 2035 1833 1707 1626 1574 1469 1326 1227 1196 1212 1251 1315 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.5 22.1 24.1 26.2 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.9 136.2 135.3 134.2 133.0 130.9 129.4 128.8 128.9 129.3 129.9 130.5 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 14 14 10 7 7 8 9 11 11 10 8 7 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 22 21 22 17 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. 10. 5. 1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -3. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 9. 6. -0. -4. -7. -9. -13. -20. -29. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 136.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.2% 15.6% 13.2% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.9% 6.3% 4.7% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 09/28/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##