* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 06/02/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 39 45 56 66 71 71 68 63 58 56 55 53 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 39 45 56 66 71 71 68 63 58 56 55 53 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 50 57 62 63 60 57 54 53 53 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 6 11 11 14 17 16 21 19 14 7 5 3 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 -7 -6 -6 -5 0 0 0 2 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 162 159 156 110 96 84 71 69 67 65 71 96 87 28 25 218 164 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 26.8 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 149 147 147 144 141 137 136 136 139 141 132 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 68 67 66 68 68 66 65 63 59 54 53 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 45 51 48 34 29 11 -3 0 1 5 1 9 4 -4 -7 200 MB DIV 129 129 115 126 113 124 125 81 23 32 8 15 -19 3 -2 8 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2293 2312 2348 2378 2400 2456 2511 2544 2550 2526 2495 2425 2339 2200 2017 1793 1577 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.2 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.9 130.9 131.8 132.3 132.5 132.3 131.8 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 4 5 8 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 21 23 23 20 19 15 16 15 15 18 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. 39. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -7. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 31. 41. 46. 46. 43. 38. 33. 31. 30. 28. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 126.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 47.3% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 37.4% 65.7% 0.0% Logistic: 24.7% 70.9% 53.8% 47.0% 29.2% 27.6% 22.7% 22.4% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.9% 6.6% 2.2% 0.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.2% Consensus: 9.6% 41.0% 30.7% 16.4% 9.8% 22.5% 30.0% 7.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% 2.0% SDCON: 5.3% 30.0% 18.8% 8.7% 4.9% 14.2% 20.0% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##