* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 06/02/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 38 43 54 64 73 75 73 69 64 62 59 56 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 38 43 54 64 73 75 73 69 64 62 59 56 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 32 35 40 47 54 59 61 59 56 54 52 51 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 8 10 15 13 14 16 14 6 4 2 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -1 -3 -1 0 3 4 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 145 143 151 157 155 105 83 56 70 56 70 79 90 11 324 192 180 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 150 147 144 144 140 138 137 137 137 137 133 126 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 70 66 66 67 67 62 62 57 55 52 50 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 11 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 36 34 45 40 34 16 4 -2 7 4 10 14 9 2 0 200 MB DIV 125 120 117 100 91 94 135 123 84 47 42 -5 5 11 0 5 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 2235 2238 2241 2262 2291 2369 2427 2491 2519 2522 2481 2456 2370 2230 2036 1796 1581 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.4 126.8 127.3 127.8 129.1 130.2 131.3 132.0 132.5 132.7 132.6 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 5 3 3 2 3 5 7 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 21 22 22 23 21 16 17 16 13 9 9 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 29. 39. 48. 50. 48. 44. 39. 37. 34. 31. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 126.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 11.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 51.3% 33.8% 0.0% 0.0% 39.5% 66.9% 0.0% Logistic: 30.4% 77.9% 61.1% 53.4% 25.8% 29.2% 13.1% 15.1% Bayesian: 14.1% 14.2% 14.9% 6.5% 0.5% 4.6% 3.3% 0.6% Consensus: 14.8% 47.8% 36.6% 20.0% 8.8% 24.4% 27.8% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##