* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 06/02/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 45 57 67 68 66 62 58 53 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 34 45 57 67 68 66 62 58 53 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 42 46 48 48 45 41 36 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 9 10 12 16 20 20 19 25 25 19 13 6 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -1 -2 -6 -7 -6 -6 -5 -3 1 1 2 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 69 122 124 118 119 83 74 60 58 43 54 67 86 98 127 125 96 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.7 26.3 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 149 146 144 143 144 144 143 137 130 126 117 118 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 72 70 66 67 65 65 65 65 59 53 51 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 12 14 16 15 15 14 14 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 47 48 51 61 48 28 3 -11 -23 -13 -10 -10 -6 -1 -12 200 MB DIV 109 117 133 143 144 130 166 134 76 34 -1 -23 -5 -16 2 1 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 2241 2240 2252 2264 2278 2338 2392 2416 2417 2407 2339 2227 2079 1911 1714 1517 1366 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.9 12.9 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.2 126.6 127.0 127.3 128.2 129.0 129.4 129.6 129.8 129.8 129.4 128.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 3 5 6 7 9 9 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 22 20 21 23 24 24 24 24 21 14 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 8. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 44. 43. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -14. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 25. 37. 47. 48. 46. 42. 38. 33. 29. 25. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.4 125.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.80 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 32.4% 16.1% 9.7% 3.8% 6.2% 11.7% 13.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.9% 11.2% 5.7% 3.3% 1.3% 2.1% 4.0% 4.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.9% 8.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.5% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 06/02/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##