* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 06/01/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 48 61 69 72 71 65 60 54 49 45 41 35 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 48 61 69 72 71 65 60 54 49 45 41 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 26 31 40 47 53 56 55 50 46 41 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 7 10 12 17 15 17 18 21 22 18 10 4 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 4 5 8 10 SHEAR DIR 317 14 80 74 94 90 75 60 39 43 43 60 69 73 131 146 159 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.9 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 150 150 149 144 144 144 142 139 130 124 122 107 101 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 76 73 72 67 68 66 67 66 64 57 52 48 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 13 16 17 18 18 17 16 14 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 52 59 58 61 72 61 43 16 2 -13 -16 -23 -10 2 3 18 200 MB DIV 98 119 139 153 194 184 156 169 92 44 17 -9 0 -19 -8 -5 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 2271 2285 2303 2314 2319 2355 2377 2385 2386 2328 2236 2109 1967 1780 1572 1342 1121 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.1 126.6 127.0 127.3 128.0 128.6 129.1 129.4 129.4 129.3 128.8 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 4 4 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 21 20 20 21 22 23 20 22 18 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 17. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. 43. 43. 42. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -11. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 13. 11. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 41. 49. 52. 51. 45. 40. 34. 29. 25. 21. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 125.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 06/01/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.86 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.85 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.51 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 60.8% 38.1% 29.4% 15.9% 22.4% 19.4% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% Consensus: 3.2% 20.6% 13.0% 9.9% 5.3% 7.6% 6.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 06/01/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##