* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 06/01/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 38 50 63 73 78 76 73 66 61 55 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 38 50 63 73 78 76 73 66 61 55 49 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 45 52 55 55 51 46 41 36 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 6 8 14 14 15 16 19 20 22 21 13 7 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 2 3 4 6 9 SHEAR DIR 295 324 15 74 77 93 85 68 51 43 38 53 63 75 82 184 167 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.9 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 152 152 152 152 150 146 145 143 143 138 131 125 122 111 103 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 77 76 75 72 68 68 66 66 64 60 53 47 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 14 17 18 18 18 16 15 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 49 53 52 60 60 45 20 1 -11 -20 -15 -9 3 0 14 200 MB DIV 102 95 119 151 153 192 159 162 139 51 18 0 2 0 -15 4 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 2228 2249 2263 2272 2273 2282 2309 2314 2306 2284 2223 2109 1990 1819 1642 1419 1183 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.7 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.0 125.5 125.9 126.3 126.9 127.6 128.3 128.6 128.9 129.0 128.7 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 23 22 22 20 23 22 20 21 18 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 25. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. 44. 43. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 17. 17. 13. 11. 7. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 30. 43. 53. 58. 56. 53. 46. 41. 35. 29. 24. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 124.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 06/01/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.3% 82.4% 60.0% 53.7% 26.8% 46.8% 48.5% 25.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.9% 3.7% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 2.9% Consensus: 7.8% 28.4% 21.2% 18.2% 8.9% 16.0% 16.4% 9.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 06/01/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##