* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 83 79 66 55 42 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 87 83 79 66 55 42 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 86 81 75 62 51 40 31 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 18 8 9 20 26 31 31 23 21 15 8 10 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 4 5 4 8 4 1 10 10 0 5 1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 303 320 309 226 217 203 213 213 208 199 208 154 147 131 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.8 25.6 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 139 141 140 136 130 117 112 117 121 121 132 139 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -49.6 -49.8 -49.3 -49.5 -49.1 -49.3 -49.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 57 59 60 56 51 50 46 41 35 35 37 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 24 23 21 20 18 16 13 11 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 61 66 83 79 90 98 98 87 86 23 14 12 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -15 -26 -10 27 13 11 0 20 -14 -6 -24 -6 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 3 0 -3 -3 -3 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1482 1428 1368 1309 1214 1107 1017 958 927 925 977 1076 1121 1114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.6 20.9 21.9 22.5 22.5 22.0 21.1 19.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 124.1 123.7 123.5 123.2 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.5 122.1 121.6 121.4 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 4 2 3 4 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 5 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 1 0 5 8 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -30. -37. -41. -45. -47. -48. -47. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -22. -23. -23. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -7. -11. -24. -35. -48. -58. -66. -73. -77. -79. -80. -78. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.9 124.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 14.8% 11.7% 10.6% 7.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.6% 4.2% 3.6% 2.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##