* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 75 72 63 53 44 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 75 72 63 53 44 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 73 68 59 50 42 35 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 18 16 8 18 26 29 36 30 14 20 13 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 6 4 4 3 4 3 12 0 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 306 287 289 300 252 216 211 212 206 215 188 193 173 143 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 141 139 141 140 136 131 116 111 114 116 118 121 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -49.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 57 54 57 56 50 45 47 45 37 31 29 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 25 24 22 20 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 52 66 59 76 86 78 102 121 118 69 39 51 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -5 -5 -9 -26 -20 17 12 22 3 4 -1 -1 -5 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 0 1 1 0 3 3 1 0 -2 -9 -1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1693 1609 1526 1464 1403 1316 1220 1130 1017 966 957 964 962 985 1015 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.7 20.8 22.0 22.5 22.3 22.0 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 125.2 124.5 124.1 123.7 123.3 123.2 123.1 122.8 122.6 122.3 122.1 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 1 2 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 5 4 4 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -5. -8. -17. -27. -36. -44. -53. -61. -65. -68. -72. -73. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.2 125.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.0% 12.9% 11.0% 8.2% 11.7% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.1% 4.8% 3.8% 2.9% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##