* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 77 74 67 58 50 43 33 27 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 77 74 67 58 50 43 33 27 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 72 68 59 51 44 37 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 15 6 15 19 25 28 30 19 25 15 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 4 4 6 5 2 0 8 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 305 300 289 299 290 216 200 212 213 207 190 176 167 163 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.3 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 143 142 138 140 136 133 124 114 116 120 121 123 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -48.8 -49.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 58 56 56 56 50 49 50 48 42 39 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 25 24 23 21 19 18 14 13 11 10 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 58 54 60 68 92 81 100 110 113 107 108 106 93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 20 10 -13 -7 -24 19 13 28 16 15 38 31 18 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 0 0 0 4 3 5 3 2 0 -2 2 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1753 1690 1626 1547 1467 1365 1291 1159 1070 979 911 888 901 889 856 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.1 22.5 22.3 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.3 125.7 125.1 124.5 123.9 123.4 123.4 123.0 122.8 122.4 121.9 121.4 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 8 7 4 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -17. -19. -18. -20. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -17. -25. -32. -42. -48. -54. -57. -63. -66. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 126.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 4.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.87 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 21.5% 16.8% 13.8% 10.7% 14.7% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 13.9% 5.7% 2.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 11.9% 7.5% 5.3% 4.2% 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.5% 6.9% 4.2% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##