* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 80 77 71 63 53 45 38 31 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 80 77 71 63 53 45 38 31 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 75 72 63 56 48 42 35 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 11 13 11 4 16 22 27 31 23 20 20 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -2 1 0 1 5 3 3 3 0 4 13 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 309 309 306 289 313 243 218 204 208 206 194 169 173 163 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.8 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 143 142 138 139 135 130 117 118 119 120 122 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -49.9 -49.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 59 62 60 55 58 55 52 55 55 47 39 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 16 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 46 53 51 63 88 83 110 124 121 120 115 98 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 20 3 0 -6 -33 -15 14 24 9 18 17 11 31 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 2 0 0 0 3 3 2 3 -9 -7 -1 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1822 1762 1704 1620 1537 1414 1317 1214 1114 987 874 843 909 879 782 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.6 20.7 21.9 22.8 22.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 126.2 125.6 125.0 124.3 123.5 123.2 123.0 122.8 122.3 121.7 121.4 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 8 7 5 5 6 6 6 3 3 4 3 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 12 8 7 4 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -15. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -12. -22. -30. -37. -44. -50. -53. -57. -61. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.6 126.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.34 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 4.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -77.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 23.9% 19.2% 15.9% 12.5% 16.6% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 25.6% 32.1% 14.5% 7.5% 5.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 19.5% 11.3% 7.9% 6.1% 5.9% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.6% 11.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##