* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 72 71 66 58 51 45 38 31 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 72 71 66 58 51 45 38 31 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 66 63 56 49 43 38 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 12 13 15 15 8 14 19 25 22 26 19 22 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 1 2 2 7 1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 310 304 303 302 304 322 219 205 218 214 206 181 176 176 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 143 143 138 140 136 133 122 115 120 124 124 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -49.0 -49.4 -49.7 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 60 57 58 57 52 50 51 49 50 51 47 42 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 25 24 21 20 18 16 13 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 57 50 49 51 69 95 90 131 135 109 105 50 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 37 13 9 0 -33 -1 9 19 9 33 37 26 18 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 4 5 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1874 1802 1731 1660 1589 1438 1312 1238 1144 1054 964 896 840 836 850 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.4 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.0 22.3 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 126.8 126.1 125.5 124.8 123.6 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.5 122.1 121.5 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 6 8 3 7 6 5 0 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -25. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -12. -19. -25. -32. -39. -43. -46. -50. -53. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.5 127.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 4.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.90 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 23.3% 18.1% 14.8% 11.5% 16.3% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 23.7% 8.1% 3.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 15.9% 8.8% 6.3% 4.5% 5.6% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.3% 8.9% 5.4% 4.1% 3.2% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##