* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 67 67 61 56 50 43 39 33 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 67 67 61 56 50 43 39 33 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 58 51 45 40 36 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 13 12 14 15 5 15 23 24 21 19 21 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 7 1 0 1 0 7 2 7 1 5 2 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 328 318 296 299 274 306 245 225 201 219 198 192 163 156 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 25.7 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 141 139 141 140 136 133 127 117 114 120 123 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.8 -49.0 -49.3 -49.4 -49.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 56 53 52 51 52 51 51 50 51 50 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 25 26 23 24 21 18 17 15 13 11 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 58 58 63 59 52 60 86 87 117 122 106 97 91 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 20 10 2 7 -6 -21 -14 5 14 49 6 5 16 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 4 4 -1 0 0 1 5 3 0 -6 -4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1896 1831 1766 1701 1637 1463 1341 1262 1175 1099 1032 972 911 878 880 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 127.5 126.8 126.2 125.6 124.2 123.3 123.0 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.4 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 5 4 5 5 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 7 5 4 6 7 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -26. -32. -37. -39. -43. -46. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.9 128.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 4.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.81 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.7% 16.4% 13.2% 10.0% 14.8% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 19.8% 7.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 14.0% 7.9% 5.4% 3.7% 5.1% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.1% 8.0% 4.4% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##