* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 71 70 64 58 52 46 40 36 31 29 24 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 71 70 64 58 52 46 40 36 31 29 24 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 60 53 48 43 38 34 31 27 23 20 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 5 8 12 13 10 15 18 20 22 19 20 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 8 8 3 0 1 2 2 2 1 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 341 325 303 302 284 250 276 215 205 204 206 182 161 154 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.2 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 143 140 140 139 137 134 133 123 116 118 123 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -49.7 -49.5 -49.5 -49.7 -49.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 55 51 52 48 48 54 57 55 57 54 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 26 24 22 21 20 18 16 15 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 57 63 64 62 62 74 94 101 155 112 112 90 98 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 42 16 8 -1 -15 -41 -17 27 13 24 31 31 0 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 0 3 1 0 0 3 3 5 7 6 -6 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1943 1881 1819 1747 1675 1540 1396 1287 1230 1152 1061 978 924 871 824 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.7 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.7 128.0 127.3 126.6 125.9 124.7 123.6 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.4 122.0 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 7 4 4 6 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -14. -17. -16. -16. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. -1. -7. -12. -19. -25. -29. -34. -36. -41. -44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 4.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.77 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -79.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.85 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 23.7% 18.2% 14.7% 11.3% 16.3% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 33.5% 16.0% 7.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 19.6% 11.5% 7.6% 4.3% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.9% 11.8% 7.2% 5.3% 3.6% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##