* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 65 67 64 62 56 50 44 41 36 33 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 65 67 64 62 56 50 44 41 36 33 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 59 57 51 46 42 38 34 31 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 10 7 3 5 9 11 12 13 20 22 21 18 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 2 1 3 4 1 3 0 5 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 5 344 343 346 247 253 267 213 208 188 203 209 178 152 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.9 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 146 147 141 141 138 138 135 130 119 117 120 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.2 -49.1 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 58 58 52 51 49 47 46 50 53 52 54 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 25 27 24 24 22 20 18 17 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 46 62 67 63 57 65 89 92 111 126 108 103 102 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 71 41 36 25 -1 -34 -32 -21 22 11 21 11 4 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 8 6 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2036 1985 1935 1866 1798 1663 1505 1368 1304 1216 1114 1022 939 886 853 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.4 128.9 128.3 127.6 126.8 125.5 124.2 123.2 123.0 122.7 122.4 122.0 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 13 10 6 5 5 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 7. 4. 2. -4. -10. -16. -19. -24. -27. -29. -32. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.3 129.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.74 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.9% 17.0% 14.0% 10.7% 16.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 29.1% 11.9% 7.4% 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 17.5% 9.8% 7.2% 3.7% 5.9% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.3% 11.7% 6.4% 4.6% 3.3% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##