* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 64 64 64 62 57 51 48 44 41 40 35 32 30 25 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 64 64 64 62 57 51 48 44 41 40 35 32 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 62 62 60 56 51 47 44 42 40 40 38 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 16 14 5 11 8 9 10 10 15 24 25 14 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 12 10 13 14 3 5 4 -1 -2 2 5 2 3 7 0 SHEAR DIR 12 10 7 5 9 317 310 284 288 209 208 188 211 203 186 161 184 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.1 26.0 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 150 151 147 145 140 139 139 137 135 127 120 120 125 128 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.0 -49.4 -49.4 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 64 62 60 57 55 50 47 41 36 39 43 47 48 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 24 23 24 23 21 18 18 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 33 46 49 66 69 64 72 92 93 95 130 127 114 95 81 200 MB DIV 104 83 85 59 50 12 12 -28 -26 -39 10 14 0 29 26 11 8 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 6 4 5 5 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -17 -9 LAND (KM) 2160 2118 2075 2028 1981 1859 1724 1596 1479 1379 1270 1184 1098 1053 1023 958 843 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.2 129.9 129.3 128.7 127.4 126.0 124.9 124.2 123.6 123.0 122.7 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 16 17 13 8 7 5 7 7 6 4 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -20. -23. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.8 130.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.55 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.67 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.77 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 29.9% 19.6% 15.5% 11.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 12.0% 5.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 14.4% 8.4% 6.2% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 23.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.6% 18.7% 9.7% 6.6% 5.0% 5.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING