* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 63 65 64 61 55 51 46 42 40 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 63 65 64 61 55 51 46 42 40 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 58 59 56 52 47 42 39 37 35 33 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 11 14 8 9 13 11 7 12 12 19 23 18 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 13 11 18 7 5 6 3 -1 3 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 48 13 3 5 360 2 295 303 286 269 223 190 189 198 173 157 154 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 151 148 147 141 139 139 140 132 127 126 129 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -49.3 -49.0 -49.2 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 66 64 60 55 49 45 43 41 43 51 55 57 57 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 23 23 25 23 22 21 19 17 15 13 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 36 35 50 68 77 76 80 79 79 94 133 113 97 101 93 200 MB DIV 92 112 86 81 76 37 23 -7 -33 -29 7 8 18 1 -6 22 28 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 8 6 4 4 3 1 1 3 3 8 13 15 13 1 LAND (KM) 2184 2149 2114 2063 2012 1913 1769 1618 1489 1368 1232 1115 1034 958 902 843 764 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.3 130.1 129.5 129.0 127.8 126.4 125.1 124.1 123.2 122.2 121.6 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 17 14 11 7 5 6 8 5 2 1 2 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 130.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.71 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 25.1% 18.7% 14.8% 11.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 16.5% 6.3% 3.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 14.3% 8.6% 6.2% 3.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.7% 12.1% 8.3% 6.1% 4.9% 7.0% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##